Reason Still for Hope

by Ariel Michael

Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.   —John Adams, Dec. 4, 1770

     John Adams, born before the time of the American Revolution and the country’s beginning, would go on to become the first Vice President and second President of the United States. My parents lived the American dream handed down each generation since then. To them, beyond life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, they saw a bountiful country and an opportunity for all to prosper.

     For myself, I grew up as a happy child with my parents providing well for me. Like most of the youth in my generation, I saw life with all its possibilities and was very happy.

     However, on March 23, 2008 when I was thirteen, a new journey began for me, and it has not stopped since. At the time, I was naïve, in the eighth grade, and had never even been on the internet. I enjoyed my violin and Disney movies. I knew very little about the subjects of science, and certainly didn’t know anything about climate. But all that changed over the next few months as I experienced visions during the daytime that took me until now to realize what scientists are telling us about. At that time, I began having visions of the future, and could vividly see two different timelines and world events, and also saw two very different world outcomes. One was a pleasant world similar as today and another was quite frightening. Since that time, I’ve discovered more about the timelines. I can see branches coming off them that either lead back to the other extreme possibility or chart a new course somewhere in between these two extreme possibilities, and in effect, create a third and more likely probability. These major future branches are always splitting off when we change what we collectively decide and what we are willing to do or not do in this case. We are on this middle road and it is up to us which direction that road takes us and how close to either side of the extremes we are willing to go. Yet, I must warn you of what I see at this time.

     Ahead lies a road we humans are about to embark on, and as I follow this timeline, I see a world ahead that I will now describe in detail. If you don’t want to see this future or know anything about it, I recommend you put this article down. It is disturbing and you may wish to go back and convince yourself otherwise regarding our collective future. I wish I too could turn back and go back to the innocence of my childhood, but I can’t, and like John Adams’ warning not to ignore facts, you should avail yourself to the facts and the consequences surrounding this problem. Similar with history and not learning from it to only repeat mistakes, not looking into the future will only blind us to the outcome of our present mistake, a mistake that has been with us for some time now.

     For Americans, we are locked both in time and location with the world. We don’t see it yet, but our outcome is now a shared one with the rest of the world. Today, we are seen as a great nation capable of leading into this new future, but we will choose not to. We will cling to the past and worry about the present and forget to look forward to the future for answers. We will continue to argue over the here and now with regard to the economy, healthcare, and welfare of our citizens as immediate concerns instead of what needs to be done regarding a major problem before us that few recognize. We will become even more divisive over the years ahead, changing out presidents and congressmen on sound bites who don’t understand the science and lack the vision to rally our people to look ahead and begin solving the real problems of humanity. Americans will concern ourselves over our prosperity and debt instead of looking toward the common good of all for solutions to problems and challenges facing all of us.

     Because of this, there is an 80 percent probability a Republican will be elected in 2012, and serve for eight years. It is during this time the EPA will be downsized and environmental issues put aside for a pro-business agenda. Tar sand pipeline will be built.

     Business interests will lobby the government to defund scientists because of their warnings regarding global warming. After that time we will flip flop back to a democratic president who will begin again to listen to these issues. Yet, it will be too late to change our fate. When the global CO2 level reaches 416 ppm, we will pass a critical tipping point in the system, thus unable to change the eventual outcome by much. This is why it is critical over the next four to eight years to begin a serious leadership in reducing CO2 output, thus shifting the outcome to a lesser degree of global warming effect.

     Over the next twenty years, we, in the USA, will do little to change our habits and economy toward a clean energy future. There are some efforts in clean energy and efficiency, but because we failed to lead the world, the world also fails to give it the upmost required importance. Each side blames the other for inaction and the cause of the problem. Countries like China will become economic leaders and continue to invest in clean energy and sell us products like electric cars. China, Japan, and France with the help of Germany will work on fusion power or fusion-nuclear hybrids and become world leaders at this research technology while the USA lags behind in research and caters to a fossil fuel industry instead. The U.S. businesses will resist investments in this new technology that starts developing in the twenties. The USA will continue to lag behind because powerful influences of money have locked the debates in favor of keeping the status quo for now. Most citizens are placated as they continue to deal with issues at hand of daily life.

     The climate will continue to change after we pass this tipping point near 2020 as global warming begins taking hold and having a larger effect on the weather. Tensions begin to rise over resources, quality of life, and weather issues during this time. After 2030, temperatures have accelerated and are now at 1.8 to 1.9C higher. Toward 2040, the population will level out at 8.5 billion people because of the increased desertification of Africa and the suffering and deaths due to famines from crop failures and increased diseases. Up to this time, scientific, religious, and political pleas are heard to change course, but now it will take too long to change the world economies, and we are locked into a fossil fueled world that should have evolved into a clean energy one. After the tipping point, the changes to the environment begin picking up speed as both the greenhouse gases continue being emitted by mankind, while also coming out of the environment. Locked up in permafrost to the north, this reservoir is emitting larger quantities of it while elsewhere fires burn and forests die. Scientists become more alarmed as these changes continue unabated, and we are helpless to stop this. Also up to this time, we have increased our natural resource usage and have decimated many fish populations and other species.

     Ice continues to melt and disappear around the world as the seas rise. Rivers have narrowed, monsoons and weather patterns have shifted, and fresh water is a major concern. Many die due to lack of clean water and safe food as disease and weather extremes take their toll on us. After 2040, we will see several major pandemics begin. One is from rodents (mostly occurring in Eurasian continents and Africa) harming the food supply in 2045. Another is mosquito born around 2043 and affects the world as it rises out of the tropics. The USA is affected as it comes out of the tropics of South and Central America. These pandemics will create great stress on the world hospital systems with stealing of supplies due to fear and disease. Decades later, most of these institutions will collapse completely. These and other diseases keep rising over the decades ahead with waves of death and huge numbers of bodies.

     Over time, by the year 2050, America also is in big trouble with resource shortages of food and other goods. Many citizens are dying from heat and lack of clean water and food. Chaos has spread to the USA by now and the government is trying to keep control, but is losing out especially in the cities. There are major migrations of people worldwide and now also in America. Two new major groups of people emerge within the USA: Those who enlist in criminal activity to find personal resources and those who work together to help the common group. The once rich are now poor as many of the world stock markets including the USA have crashed, taking all their money. World leaders are resigning during the ensuing chaos. Anarchy takes hold quickly. People live in fear from war outbreaks across the world and the stealing and looting within the USA as well. In 2052, the President declares martial law because of city riots and crime. There are bombings and riots within the USA as radical groups fight the military and by 2056, this bloodshed spills into Washington D.C., where many senators and congressmen have been killed. The President is taken away by Secret Service and, from this point on, loses any chance of regaining control again. The states take control because of regional differences and government infighting. By 2060, even this is degrading down to local governorships instead as the states are lost. We no longer elect presidents and the United States of America has collapsed and the state of the union is gone. Great Britain and other social oriented countries around the world are faring much better and their governments are still intact. These governments are having their own issues caused by the stress of global warming. Later by 2069, the remnants of the UN collapses due to infighting and various war outbreaks as governments leave the UN for their own regional issues instead.

     Survival under sweltering heat is what people are concerned with now. By 2080, the world population has fallen to 2 billion people and levels off toward 2100. By 2100, the temperatures are 10 to 12C higher and the seas are 10 to 14 meters higher than today. Temperatures will slowly continue to rise to the highest of 14C above today’s levels by 2130 and begin to level off with a slow decline thereafter. By 2260, the entire northern hemisphere has become ice free including most of Greenland and only central Antarctica ice is left. Seas have risen to 20 to 25 meters.

     Out of this suffering, misery, and death, new hope is just beginning. In some pockets around the world, a cooperative is beginning and over time, will form a future society based on the common welfare of all. Like a phoenix rising from the ashes of the fire, a world united will one day emerge as the UN reforms again. Yet that will be a long time from now and for several centuries to come, the world population will suffer during this time of great suffering and struggles for survival. Many animal species have perished and are lost during this time of catastrophe.

     Yes, as I write this article, this vision I am seeing is this middle road we are heading from the year 2011 where we do a little but not enough, and it gets very close to, yet not reaching, the extreme of a major extinction of life on earth—including humans. We will not perish, but we will suffer on this middle road. Instead, we should be shifting this road toward a pleasant future. Little has changed in these visions since I first saw them back in 2008 as a thirteen year old, because we have done very little to change it and time is running out.

     So, why wait to learn the lesson the hard way? We still have time now to become that great society our forefathers believed in. The most important thing is to act NOW while we still have time to avoid much of this suffering. Serious action to stop global warming must begin before 2015, and we can’t afford to waste four to eight more years denying this fact as a nation going into this next election. I have known that 416 ppm CO2 is the tipping point in the system related to ice as I saw this in my visions. After which, we will not be able to stop climate change. Even if we begin now, it will still take us ten to twenty years to change course in order to lessen the effects on our world. We must make this our main priority. It is too easy to ignore this problem, to deny it is real, and to look back to the comfort we enjoyed without dealing with it. The comfort and prosperity won’t last long and soon that lifestyle will be a mirage as we will have to deal with this issue sooner or later. The facts are inevitable and the outcome is foreseeable. Scientists who understand the problem also know that this future is a real possibility, and it is time that Americans learn the facts. President Adams’ quote at the start of our nation is a warning to us today. The time for debate is over; the time for action is now, especially while there is still time to change the outcomes.

     I, like many of 2008, had hoped for a strong presidential leader who would understand the seriousness of this problem and rally the people. I recalled being happy after I had just learned how serious this issue was from my visions while both candidates were talking about it and had promised they would do something about it. However that pledge by both fizzled away during the recession years that followed. Moreover, it has become clear; we must lead ourselves into the future we want. It is never easy to do the right thing. Yet, I choose to help my fellow Americans to see the facts and the consequences and that is a most patriotic thing to do if you love your country and your fellow countrymen.

     We must have worldwide compassion and patience for all as we are in this problem together. We must have the utmost respect for those who have different opinions regarding these issues, and we must not give into anger or try to make villains out of those who oppose us. Only together can we solve this, and we must implore them to consider the moral issues of selfishness and greed as opposed to working together for all our mutual benefit. Those that like independence and are engines of industry, let them see the profit in it and the disaster of not reacting in time. Countries like China may very well take the lead in these new technologies and that can also spur competition for clean energy in America. Remember, it is in our best interest to help others worldwide to see the benefit of working together on this global problem. It also begins with us taking a hard look at ourselves and wanting to help others around us.

     I recently learned of the movement of youth in 1970 which led to the first Earth Day, the crying Indian commercial on pollution, and the EPA being formed by Republican Richard Nixon. And in 1992, 43 children sued the government of the Philippines to save their rainforest based on a concept called intergenerational justice. This action eventually led to the government passing a law to help save the remainder of it.

     By the way, from August 20, 2011 to September 3, 2011, there was a sit in at the White House because these Americans don’t want another pipeline and the boreal forests of Canada destroyed for tar sands and all that carbon eventually released into the environment. I appreciate their willingness to step forward and add their voice to let us move in a better forward direction that respects environment, nature, and the only world we have. My hat is off to Bill McKibben, an environmental leader and creator of www.350.org who was arrested, as well as others like climate scientist James Hansen and other courageous souls who stand up for my generation and their children’s future.

     It is not too late yet to educate ourselves, to take responsibility for our actions, and to contribute to a safe and sustainable future for all.

                                                                                   —30—

Ariel Michael has a regular column in The New Era Times callled My Soul-Journ.

You can learn more about Ariel Michael at the following websites:

ArielMichael.com

Beyond-My-World.com